Slovácko 1-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovácko at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Bohemians 1905 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Slovácko — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 5W 0D 0L from 5 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Slovácko have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slovácko 64% and Bohemians 1905 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Slovácko 64% | Bohemians 1905 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 2.18 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 1.046 / defence 0.958 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.788 / defence 1.545. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.379. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.545 — this is suppressing Slovácko's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Slovácko games / 11 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 63% | Draw 20% | Bohemians 1905 17%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Bohemians 1905 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Slovácko (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 40% | Bohemians 1905 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 63% | Draw 20% | Bohemians 1905 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG Slovácko 2.18 / Bohemians 1905 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 1.046 / def 0.958 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.788 / def 1.545 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bohemians 1905 xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Slovácko 1 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 63% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slovácko (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 1.05x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
63%
1.58
20%
5.08
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Slovácko xG
Total xG
3.22
1.04
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
11%
8.86
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
2%
51.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.04 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Slovácko have picked up 2.27 PPG on a 8W 1D 2L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 3W 3D 5L from 11 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slovácko are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slovácko have posted 3.00 PPG from 5 outings (5W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.27 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.55 scored and 2.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovácko have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Bohemians 1905 in 82%.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 8W 1D 2L in their last 11 games (2.27 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Slovácko's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 3.00 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Slovácko won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
3
Draws
4
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Slovácko 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 40%, Bohemians 1905 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Slovácko and 100% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Slovácko's games and 80% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Slovácko's matches and 100% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Bohemians 1905 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 2.18 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.04 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovácko fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.79 / defence 1.54, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 63% | Draw 20% | Bohemians 1905 17%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 64%, Bohemians 1905 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.