Slavia Praha 4-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Fortuna Arena to face Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Slavia Praha (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha at Fortuna Arena this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Teplice have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.30 PPG for Slavia Praha against 1.80 for Teplice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Slavia Praha have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Teplice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Slavia Praha, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Teplice — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Slavia Praha and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 50% versus Teplice 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 60% | Teplice 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.08 xG and Teplice 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.365 / defence 0.903 | Teplice attack 0.966 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.226. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 Slavia Praha games / 53 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 60% | Draw 22% | Teplice 18%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Teplice 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 60% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 60% | Draw 22% | Teplice 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Slavia Praha 2.08 / Teplice 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.365 / def 0.903 | Teplice attack 0.966 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Teplice xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Teplice kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Slavia Praha 4 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Teplice part of?
Slavia Praha vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 60% chance of winning, Teplice a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Slavia Praha and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Teplice?
Record (5 meetings): Slavia Praha 3W | Draws 2 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Teplice in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Teplice (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.97x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.55
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.15
1.07
Teplice xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
13%
7.99
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
2%
44.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.07 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.31 PPG on a 41W 11D 6L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice's form line: 19W 16D 23L from 58 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.75 PPG from 28 outings (25W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.31 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Teplice have gone 7W 4D 17L from 28 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.48 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.21 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice in 60%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 41W 11D 6L in their last 58 games (2.31 PPG), while Teplice have gone 19W 16D 23L in their last 58 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Teplice away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.75 PPG; Teplice away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Teplice in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 5 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Slavia Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 31 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
2
Draws
1
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 7, Teplice have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2025, when Teplice 1-2 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Teplice?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 46%, Teplice 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Slavia Praha and 71% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Slavia Praha's games and 68% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slavia Praha vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Slavia Praha's matches and 71% of Teplice's.
Do Slavia Praha and Teplice tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Teplice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Teplice 4-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.08 xG and Teplice 1.07 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Teplice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.36 / defence 0.90 against Teplice attack 0.97 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 60% | Draw 22% | Teplice 18%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 60%, Teplice 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Teplice's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.11 average — above their attacking norm. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.