Slavia Praha 0-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slavia Praha face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Plzen travel to Fortuna Arena to take on Slavia Praha. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Fortuna Arena, Slavia Praha have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Slavia Praha are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 2.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Slavia Praha have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 8 past contests while Plzen have managed just 2 wins.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 5–3 with Slavia Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Slavia Praha and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Slavia Praha trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
Plzen trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 42% versus Plzen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 53% | Plzen 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.99 xG and Plzen 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.425 / defence 0.781 | Plzen attack 1.187 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.192. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.425 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Slavia Praha games / 57 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 57% | Draw 24% | Plzen 19%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Plzen 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Slavia Praha 40% | Plzen 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 57% | Draw 24% | Plzen 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Slavia Praha 1.99 / Plzen 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.425 / def 0.781 | Plzen attack 1.187 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Plzen xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Plzen kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Plzen kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Slavia Praha 0 - 0 Plzen.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Plzen part of?
Slavia Praha vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 57% chance of winning, Plzen a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Slavia Praha and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
Record (8 meetings): Slavia Praha 6W | Draws 0 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Plzen in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Plzen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slavia Praha's attack at 1.43x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
57%
1.77
24%
4.15
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.10
1.11
Plzen xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
3%
37.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.11 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.53 PPG on a 49W 10D 3L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 37W 12D 13L from 62 games, 1.98 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Plzen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.87 PPG from 30 outings (28W 2D 0L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 17W 5D 8L from 30 away games — 1.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 0.61 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.94 scored and 1.11 conceded. Plzen's attacking output running into Slavia Praha's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; Plzen in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Plzen in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 49W 10D 3L in their last 62 games (2.53 PPG), while Plzen have gone 37W 12D 13L in their last 62 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Plzen away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.87 PPG; Plzen away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Plzen in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
2
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 7, Plzen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 40%, Plzen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Slavia Praha and 63% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Plzen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 50% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Slavia Praha's matches and 63% of Plzen's.
Do Slavia Praha and Plzen tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Plzen in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slavia Praha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha and Plzen finished level at 0-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.99 xG and Plzen 1.11 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slavia Praha fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Plzen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.43 / defence 0.78 against Plzen attack 1.19 / defence 0.97, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 57% | Draw 24% | Plzen 19%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 53%, Plzen 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.
Plzen's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.