Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slavia Praha vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Championship Round - 3 sees Plzen travel to Fortuna Arena to take on Slavia Praha. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 May 2024, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Fortuna Arena, Slavia Praha have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Plzen away from home this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slavia Praha 2.10 PPG, Plzen 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Slavia Praha, 2 for Plzen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Plzen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Slavia Praha trading profile (67 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Plzen trading profile (67 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 49% versus Plzen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 63% | Plzen 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.64 xG and Plzen 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.355 / defence 0.866 | Plzen attack 1.110 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Plzen's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Slavia Praha games / 60 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 46% | Draw 27% | Plzen 28%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Plzen 3.57. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 50% | Plzen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 May 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 46% | Draw 27% | Plzen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Slavia Praha 1.64 / Plzen 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.355 / def 0.866 | Plzen attack 1.110 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Plzen xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Plzen kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Plzen kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Slavia Praha 3 - 0 Plzen.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Plzen part of?
Slavia Praha vs Plzen is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 46% chance of winning, Plzen a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Slavia Praha and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
Record (3 meetings): Slavia Praha 1W | Draws 0 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Plzen in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Plzen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slavia Praha's attack at 1.35x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.76
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.88
1.24
Plzen xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
5%
18.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.24 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.30 PPG on a 47W 13D 7L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 39W 12D 16L from 67 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slavia Praha on 2.30 PPG, Plzen on 1.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.72 PPG from 32 outings (28W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.30 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 17W 7D 8L from 32 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.46 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.00 scored and 1.09 conceded. Plzen's attacking output running into Slavia Praha's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Current Season
Plzen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Plzen in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 47W 13D 7L in their last 67 games (2.30 PPG), while Plzen have gone 39W 12D 16L in their last 67 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Plzen away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.72 PPG; Plzen away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Plzen in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
2
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 7, Plzen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 47%, Plzen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Slavia Praha and 59% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 62% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Slavia Praha's matches and 59% of Plzen's.
Do Slavia Praha and Plzen tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Plzen in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Plzen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Plzen 3-0 at Fortuna Arena, Championship Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.64 xG and Plzen 1.24 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.35 / defence 0.87 against Plzen attack 1.11 / defence 0.79, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 46% | Draw 27% | Plzen 28%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 63%, Plzen 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Plzen's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slavia Praha 2.30 PPG, Plzen 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slavia Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.