Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Baník Ostrava travel to Fortuna Arena to take on Slavia Praha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slavia Praha have posted 8W 2D 0L at Fortuna Arena — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Slavia Praha) versus 2.10 (Baník Ostrava). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Slavia Praha: 10 wins from 10 previous clashes against 0 for Baník Ostrava, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2026, ended 4–0 with Slavia Praha winning.
The historical record gives Slavia Praha a meaningful edge here — 10 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Slavia Praha trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Baník Ostrava trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 60% versus Baník Ostrava 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 62% | Baník Ostrava 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.98 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.373 / defence 0.954 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.893 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Slavia Praha games / 35 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 56% | Draw 22% | Baník Ostrava 22%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Baník Ostrava 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 60% | Baník Ostrava 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 56% | Draw 22% | Baník Ostrava 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Slavia Praha 1.98 / Baník Ostrava 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.373 / def 0.954 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.893 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Baník Ostrava xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Fortuna Arena.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 56% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Record (10 meetings): Slavia Praha 10W | Draws 0 | Baník Ostrava 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.61
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.16
1.18
Baník Ostrava xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
14%
7.22
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
3%
32.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.18 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.35 PPG on a 28W 10D 2L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 12W 7D 21L from 40 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.27 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baník Ostrava.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.68 PPG from 19 outings (16W 3D 0L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.08 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slavia Praha have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 28W 10D 2L in their last 40 games (2.35 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 12W 7D 21L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.68 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slavia Praha have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Slavia Praha
0
Draws
0
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 10, Baník Ostrava have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 53%, Baník Ostrava 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Slavia Praha) and 42% (Baník Ostrava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 42% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Slavia Praha's matches and 42% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.