Sigma Olomouc 1-4 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Praha make the trip to Andrův stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sparta Praha (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sparta Praha away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Praha are 1.40 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc over their recent games (2.30 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Sparta Praha edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 23 Jul 2023, ended Sigma Olomouc 0–2 Sparta Praha — a Sparta Praha win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 58% versus Sparta Praha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 56% | Sparta Praha 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sigma Olomouc surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Sparta Praha have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 64% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.08 xG and Sparta Praha 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.807 / defence 1.001 | Sparta Praha attack 1.273 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.254. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.273, which lifts their away xG to 1.60. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 59 games and Sparta Praha's last 59.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 24% | Draw 28% | Sparta Praha 48%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 4.10 | Draw 3.60 | Sparta Praha 2.09. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Sparta Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 40% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Praha 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 30 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 24% | Draw 28% | Sparta Praha 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.08 / Sparta Praha 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.807 / def 1.001 | Sparta Praha attack 1.273 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Sparta Praha xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 4 Sparta Praha.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 30) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 24% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (0.81) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.27x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 59 games and Sparta Praha's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
24%
4.10
28%
3.60
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.68
1.60
Sparta Praha xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
5%
20.26
16%
6.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.60 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 64 games, going 22W 19D 23L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 2.36 PPG from 64 outings (46W 13D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 11W 9D 11L across their last 31 home games, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 2.26 points per game from their last 31 away games (21W 7D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.22 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Sparta Praha
Current Season
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Sparta Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Sparta Praha
Current Season
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 22W 19D 23L in their last 64 games (1.33 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 46W 13D 5L in their last 64 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.35 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.26 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won Sigma Olomouc 1-4 Sparta Praha on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 0W 1D 5L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Sigma Olomouc 0-3 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 58%, Sparta Praha 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Sigma Olomouc) and 52% (Sparta Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 52% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 52% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 81% of Sparta Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 1-4 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.08 xG and Sparta Praha 1.60 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.60 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.81 / defence 1.00 against Sparta Praha attack 1.27 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 24% | Draw 28% | Sparta Praha 48%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 56%, Sparta Praha 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.