Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc at Andrův stadion this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slovan Liberec have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 48% versus Slovan Liberec 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 48% | Slovan Liberec 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.11 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.763 / defence 1.020 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.854 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.141. Sigma Olomouc's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Slovan Liberec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Sigma Olomouc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Sigma Olomouc games / 25 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 30% | Slovan Liberec 32%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Slovan Liberec 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Slovan Liberec 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 30% | Slovan Liberec 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.11 / Slovan Liberec 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.763 / def 1.020 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.854 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Slovan Liberec xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 38% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (0.76) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.85x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.35
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.11
0.99
Slovan Liberec xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
11%
9.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.99 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 7W 9D 9L from 25 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 10L across 25 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.32 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 4W 6D 2L from 12 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 3W 4D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.08 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 7W 9D 9L in their last 25 games (1.20 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 9W 6D 10L in their last 25 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.50 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 1-4 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
3
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Slovan Liberec have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Slovan Liberec 1-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 50%, Slovan Liberec 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sigma Olomouc) and 50% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 67% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 50% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Slovan Liberec 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Slovan Liberec 1-0 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.11 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.99 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.76 / defence 1.02 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.85 / defence 1.27, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 30% | Slovan Liberec 32%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 48%, Slovan Liberec 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.20 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.