Plzen 3-5 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plzen host Slavia Praha at Doosan Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Plzen — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 5W 3D 2L at Doosan Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slavia Praha have recorded 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Plzen at 2.00 PPG versus Slavia Praha's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Slavia Praha have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Plzen's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 3–4 with Slavia Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Slavia Praha in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 55% versus Slavia Praha 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 51% | Slavia Praha 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 0.98 xG and Slavia Praha 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.127 / defence 0.949 | Slavia Praha attack 1.009 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.197. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.707 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Plzen games / 44 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 28% | Draw 36% | Slavia Praha 36%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | Slavia Praha 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 60% | Slavia Praha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 28% | Draw 36% | Slavia Praha 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Plzen 0.98 / Slavia Praha 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.127 / def 0.949 | Slavia Praha attack 1.009 / def 0.707 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Slavia Praha xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Plzen vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Plzen 3 - 5 Slavia Praha.
Where is Plzen vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Slavia Praha part of?
Plzen vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 28% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Plzen and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slavia Praha?
Record (7 meetings): Plzen 2W | Draws 0 | Slavia Praha 5W.
What form are Plzen and Slavia Praha in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plzen's attack at 1.13x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
28%
3.57
36%
2.80
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.13
1.15
Slavia Praha xG
3.57
28%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
9%
11.23
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Plzen and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Plzen and 1.15 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 49 games, going 30W 9D 10L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.45 PPG from 49 outings (37W 9D 3L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Plzen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 15W 5D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 2.04 points per game from 24 outings (14W 7D 3L). That's a step down from their 2.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.06 scored and 0.53 conceded. Plzen's scoring rate against Slavia Praha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 30W 9D 10L in their last 49 games (2.02 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 37W 9D 3L in their last 49 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Slavia Praha away?
Plzen's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.08 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Plzen or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Slavia Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Plzen
1
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 2, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 58%, Slavia Praha 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Plzen) and 38% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Plzen's recent matches and 38% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Plzen's recent games and 38% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Plzen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Plzen 3-5 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 0.98 xG and Slavia Praha 1.15 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.15 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.13 / defence 0.95 against Slavia Praha attack 1.01 / defence 0.71, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 28% | Draw 36% | Slavia Praha 36%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 51%, Slavia Praha 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 2.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.