Plzen 6-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Plzen welcome Pardubice to Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 9). Kick-off is Sunday 24 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Plzen have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Plzen at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pardubice stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Pardubice away from home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Plzen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Plzen, 0 for Pardubice and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Nov 2022, ended Plzen 1–1 Pardubice — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Plzen trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Pardubice trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 62% versus Pardubice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 64% | Pardubice 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.91 xG and Pardubice 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.093 / defence 0.868 | Pardubice attack 0.919 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.207. Data: built from Plzen's last 37 games and Pardubice's last 38.
Result probabilities: Plzen 60% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 19%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.68 | Draw 4.56 | Pardubice 5.39. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Plzen's last 10 home games and Pardubice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plzen 70% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 9 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 60% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Plzen 1.91 / Pardubice 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.093 / def 0.868 | Pardubice attack 0.919 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Plzen (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Pardubice xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plzen vs Pardubice FAQs
What time does Plzen vs Pardubice kick off?
Plzen vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Pardubice?
Plzen 6 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is Plzen vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Pardubice part of?
Plzen vs Pardubice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 9) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 60% chance of winning, Pardubice a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Plzen and Pardubice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plzen vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.09) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plzen's last 37 games and Pardubice's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.56
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.87
0.96
Pardubice xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
3%
36.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plzen vs Pardubice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Plzen and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Plzen and 0.96 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen's recent record stands at 23W 8D 11L from 42 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 23L across 42 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 12W 4D 5L from their last 21 home games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pardubice's away record stands at 6W 2D 13L across their last 21 away games, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.00 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Pardubice
Blended
Plzen (Home) vs Pardubice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plzen
Early Season
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Plzen vs Pardubice Form FAQs
What form are Plzen and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 23W 8D 11L in their last 42 games (1.83 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 13W 6D 23L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Pardubice away?
Plzen's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.90 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Pardubice have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Feb 2022, when Plzen won Plzen 4-0 Pardubice.
Plzen's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Plzen
2
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Plzen vs Pardubice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Pardubice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Plzen have won 6, Pardubice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Pardubice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Plzen 1-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Pardubice?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 62%, Pardubice 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Plzen) and 52% (Pardubice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plzen vs Pardubice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plzen and Pardubice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Plzen's recent matches and 48% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plzen and Pardubice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Plzen's matches and 52% of Pardubice's.
Do Plzen and Pardubice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Plzen's recent matches and 67% of Pardubice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Pardubice 6-2 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.91 xG and Pardubice 0.96 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.09 / defence 0.87 against Pardubice attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 60% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 19%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 64%, Pardubice 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.