Plzen vs FK Jablonec – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Plzen welcome FK Jablonec to Doosan Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen at Doosan Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, FK Jablonec have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Plzen 1.60 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Plzen have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 10 past contests while FK Jablonec have managed just 0 wins.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 5–0 with Plzen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (40 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (40 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 48% versus FK Jablonec 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 52% | FK Jablonec 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.31 xG and FK Jablonec 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 0.988 / defence 1.141 | FK Jablonec attack 0.880 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.288. Data: 36 Plzen games / 35 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 37% | Draw 28% | FK Jablonec 36%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | FK Jablonec 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 60% | FK Jablonec 30%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 37% | Draw 28% | FK Jablonec 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Plzen 1.31 / FK Jablonec 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 0.988 / def 1.141 | FK Jablonec attack 0.880 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Plzen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FK Jablonec xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Doosan Arena.
Where is Plzen vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs FK Jablonec part of?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 37% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Plzen and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Record (10 meetings): Plzen 7W | Draws 3 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Plzen and FK Jablonec in?
Plzen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plzen's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
37%
2.74
28%
3.63
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.60
1.29
FK Jablonec xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
10%
10.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Plzen and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Plzen and 1.29 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen's recent record stands at 19W 12D 9L from 40 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 13L across 40 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plzen on 1.72 PPG, FK Jablonec on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 11W 6D 4L from 21 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 9W 2D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; FK Jablonec in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 19W 12D 9L in their last 40 games (1.72 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 19W 8D 13L in their last 40 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or FK Jablonec away?
Plzen's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.86 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Plzen or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 57%, FK Jablonec 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Plzen) and 33% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 38%; FK Jablonec in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Plzen's recent matches and 29% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Plzen's recent games and 33% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.