Pardubice 0-4 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovan Liberec make the trip to Stadion Arnosta Kostala to face Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice at Stadion Arnosta Kostala this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slovan Liberec are 0.50 PPG clear of Pardubice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Pardubice, 4 for Slovan Liberec and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 1–2 with Slovan Liberec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 47% versus Slovan Liberec 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 43% | Slovan Liberec 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.10 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.912 / defence 1.138 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.256 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.243. Slovan Liberec have an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Pardubice games / 45 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 21% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 51%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Slovan Liberec 1.96. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 80% | Slovan Liberec 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 21% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Pardubice 1.10 / Slovan Liberec 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.912 / def 1.138 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.256 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Slovan Liberec xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Pardubice 0 - 4 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 21% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pardubice and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovan Liberec?
Record (9 meetings): Pardubice 2W | Draws 3 | Slovan Liberec 4W.
What form are Pardubice and Slovan Liberec in?
Pardubice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (1.26x) against Pardubice's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
21%
4.73
28%
3.56
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.88
1.78
Slovan Liberec xG
4.73
21%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
4%
27.99
17%
5.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.78 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice's recent record stands at 8W 13D 26L from 47 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 15L across 47 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slovan Liberec by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 7W 7D 9L from 23 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.79 PPG overall — Pardubice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 8W 6D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.53 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 8W 13D 26L in their last 47 games (0.79 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 18W 14D 15L in their last 47 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Slovan Liberec's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.22 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Slovan Liberec have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 0-4 on 22 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Slovan Liberec have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Pardubice 0-4 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 52%, Slovan Liberec 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Pardubice) and 52% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec in 30%; Pardubice have failed to score in 30% of games; Slovan Liberec in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Pardubice's recent matches and 52% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Pardubice's recent games and 52% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slovan Liberec run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Pardubice 0-4 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.10 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.78 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Pardubice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.91 / defence 1.14 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.26 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 21% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 51%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 43%, Slovan Liberec 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovan Liberec arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.