Pardubice 1-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovan Liberec make the trip to CFIG Arena to face Pardubice in Czech Liga (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Pardubice at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Pardubice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Slovan Liberec away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slovan Liberec are 0.70 PPG clear of Pardubice over their recent games (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Slovan Liberec edge it 3 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended Pardubice 0–3 Slovan Liberec — a Slovan Liberec win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 46% versus Slovan Liberec 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 42% | Slovan Liberec 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.02 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.809 / defence 0.998 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.023 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.191. Data: built from Pardubice's last 48 games and Slovan Liberec's last 48.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 32% | Slovan Liberec 39%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.41 | Draw 3.15 | Slovan Liberec 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pardubice 40% (last 10 home games) | Slovan Liberec 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 19 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 32% | Slovan Liberec 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Pardubice 1.02 / Slovan Liberec 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.809 / def 0.998 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.023 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Slovan Liberec xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec FAQs
What time does Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 December 2024 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Pardubice 1 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 19) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 29% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pardubice and Slovan Liberec will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (1.02x) against Pardubice's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Pardubice's last 48 games and Slovan Liberec's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
29%
3.41
32%
3.15
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.24
1.22
Slovan Liberec xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.22 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice's recent record stands at 14W 11D 25L from 50 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 19L across 50 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Pardubice against 1.26 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 7W 6D 11L from their last 24 home games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 4W 7D 13L across their last 24 away games, a 0.79 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovan Liberec's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.48 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Pardubice (Home) vs Slovan Liberec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pardubice
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec Form FAQs
What form are Pardubice and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 14W 11D 25L in their last 50 games (1.06 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 16W 15D 19L in their last 50 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Pardubice's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.12 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Slovan Liberec have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won Pardubice 0-4 Slovan Liberec on 22 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
2
Draws
6
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovan Liberec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pardubice have won 2, Slovan Liberec have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Pardubice 1-2 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 50%, Slovan Liberec 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Pardubice) and 46% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 33% of games; Slovan Liberec in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pardubice and Slovan Liberec matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pardubice's recent matches and 58% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pardubice and Slovan Liberec matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Pardubice's recent games and 46% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Slovan Liberec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Pardubice's recent matches and 67% of Slovan Liberec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice and Slovan Liberec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 19, as Pardubice and Slovan Liberec drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.02 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.22 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.81 / defence 1.00 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 29% | Draw 32% | Slovan Liberec 39%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Slovan Liberec 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.06 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.