Pardubice 0-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pardubice face Slovácko.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Slovácko travel to CFIG Arena to take on Pardubice in Czech Liga (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pardubice stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Pardubice have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Slovácko have recorded 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Slovácko's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Pardubice) versus 1.20 (Slovácko). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Pardubice have won 1, Slovácko 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Apr 2023, ended Pardubice 3–1 Slovácko — a Pardubice win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 48% versus Slovácko 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 48% | Slovácko 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.92 xG and Slovácko 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.762 / defence 0.904 | Slovácko attack 0.875 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.184. Pardubice's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Slovácko bring a tight defence (rating 0.731, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Pardubice's projected output down. Data: built from Pardubice's last 35 games and Slovácko's last 35.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 33% | Draw 32% | Slovácko 34%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.01 | Draw 3.10 | Slovácko 2.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovácko are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pardubice's last 10 home games and Slovácko's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pardubice 40% (last 10 home games) | Slovácko 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 6 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 33% | Draw 32% | Slovácko 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Pardubice 0.92 / Slovácko 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.762 / def 0.904 | Slovácko attack 0.875 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Slovácko xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pardubice vs Slovácko FAQs
What time does Pardubice vs Slovácko kick off?
Pardubice vs Slovácko kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Pardubice 0 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Pardubice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Slovácko part of?
Pardubice vs Slovácko is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 6) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 33% chance of winning, Slovácko a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Pardubice and Slovácko will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Pardubice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Slovácko's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pardubice's last 35 games and Slovácko's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
33%
3.01
32%
3.10
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Pardubice xG
Total xG
1.85
0.94
Slovácko xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 14.7 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pardubice vs Slovácko Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Pardubice and 0.94 for Slovácko, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice's recent record stands at 13W 6D 21L from 40 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Slovácko, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 12L across 40 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.12 PPG, Slovácko on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 8W 4D 8L from their last 20 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovácko's away record stands at 6W 7D 7L across their last 20 away games, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.18 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Slovácko
Early Season
Pardubice (Home) vs Slovácko (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pardubice
Early Season
Slovácko
Early Season
❓ Pardubice vs Slovácko Form FAQs
What form are Pardubice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 13W 6D 21L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 15W 13D 12L in their last 40 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Slovácko away?
Pardubice's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.40 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Slovácko in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Pardubice vs Slovácko H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovácko?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pardubice have won 2, Slovácko have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Slovácko last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Slovácko 0-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 45%, Slovácko 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Pardubice) and 55% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 40% of games; Slovácko in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pardubice vs Slovácko Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pardubice and Slovácko matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Pardubice's recent matches and 50% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pardubice and Slovácko matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Pardubice's recent games and 55% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Slovácko matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Pardubice's recent matches and 70% of Slovácko's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Pardubice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Pardubice 0-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.92 xG and Slovácko 0.94 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.76 / defence 0.90 against Slovácko attack 0.88 / defence 0.73, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 33% | Draw 32% | Slovácko 34%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 48%, Slovácko 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovácko's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.12 PPG, Slovácko 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.