Pardubice 0-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Hradec Králové travel to Stadion Ďolíček to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pardubice 1.10 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Pardubice trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Hradec Králové trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 68% versus Hradec Králové 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 74% | Hradec Králové 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.16 xG and Hradec Králové 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.767 / defence 1.661 | Hradec Králové attack 0.766 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.273. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hradec Králové bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Pardubice games / 21 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 27% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 48%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Hradec Králové 2.08. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 50% | Hradec Králové 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 27% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Pardubice 1.16 / Hradec Králové 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.767 / def 1.661 | Hradec Králové attack 0.766 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Hradec Králové xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Pardubice vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Pardubice 0 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové part of?
Pardubice vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 27% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pardubice and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pardubice and Hradec Králové in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
27%
3.68
25%
4.06
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.78
1.62
Hradec Králové xG
3.68
27%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
5%
18.60
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.62 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Pardubice have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 4W 5D 10L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové's form line: 6W 6D 7L from 19 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 0.89 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 0.67 PPG from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 2.16 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.26 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 4W 5D 10L in their last 19 games (0.89 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Hradec Králové away?
Hradec Králové's away record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 0.67 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Hradec Králové won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
3
Draws
3
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 44%, Hradec Králové 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Pardubice and 56% for Hradec Králové. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 44% of games; Hradec Králové in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pardubice's recent matches and 44% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Pardubice's matches and 56% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Pardubice and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pardubice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 22, as Pardubice and Hradec Králové drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.16 xG and Hradec Králové 1.62 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pardubice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.77 / defence 1.66 against Hradec Králové attack 0.77 / defence 1.23, drawn from 19/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 27% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 48%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 74%, Hradec Králové 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.89 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.