Pardubice 3-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 0W 2D 2L across 4 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.25 conceded. However, 2.25 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 0.75 PPG across 4 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 3D 1L. Last five: D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Pardubice against 0.75 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Pardubice register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Bohemians 1905 in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 100% and Bohemians 1905 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 75% | Bohemians 1905 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.38 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.974 / defence 1.216 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.922 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.333. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Pardubice games / 4 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 35% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 40%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 1905 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 100% | Bohemians 1905 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 35% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Pardubice 1.38 / Bohemians 1905 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.974 / def 1.216 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.922 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Bohemians 1905 xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Pardubice 3 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 35% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 in?
Pardubice (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.25 | L5 D-L-D-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 0W-3D-1L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.97x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.92x) against Pardubice's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
35%
2.86
25%
4.02
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.87
1.50
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
8%
12.75
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.50 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice's recent record stands at 0W 2D 2L from 4 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 1L across 4 games — 0.75 PPG, with D-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Pardubice against 0.75 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Bohemians 1905 in 100%.
Last 4 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
2
Draws
4
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-2 Pardubice.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Pardubice, 100% for Bohemians 1905 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Pardubice and 50% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Pardubice's games and 100% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Pardubice's matches and 50% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pardubice run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Bohemians 1905 3-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.38 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.50 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.97 / defence 1.22 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.92 / defence 1.21, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 35% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 40%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 75%, Bohemians 1905 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.50 PPG, Bohemians 1905 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.