Mlada Boleslav 1-4 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc meet at Lokotrans Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 November 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mlada Boleslav have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lokotrans Arena, Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Mlada Boleslav, 1.30 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Sigma Olomouc hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2024, ended 1–3 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sigma Olomouc have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 60% versus Sigma Olomouc 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 62% | Sigma Olomouc 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.15 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.036 / defence 1.508 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.845 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.194. Data: 43 Mlada Boleslav games / 43 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 25% | Draw 33% | Sigma Olomouc 42%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | Sigma Olomouc 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 70% | Sigma Olomouc 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 25% | Draw 33% | Sigma Olomouc 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.15 / Sigma Olomouc 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.036 / def 1.508 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.845 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Sigma Olomouc xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Lokotrans Arena.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 4 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 25% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (7 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 1W | Draws 2 | Sigma Olomouc 4W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 1.04x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.84x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
25%
3.98
33%
3.06
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.67
1.52
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
5%
18.23
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.52 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 13W 12D 23L from 48 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 17L across 48 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.35 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 6W 8D 10L from 24 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 6W 9D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.21 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 13W 12D 23L in their last 48 games (1.06 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 17W 14D 17L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.08 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 54%, Sigma Olomouc 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Mlada Boleslav) and 38% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav have failed to score in 29% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 50% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 38% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sigma Olomouc run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Mlada Boleslav 1-4 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.15 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.52 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.52 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.04 / defence 1.51 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 25% | Draw 33% | Sigma Olomouc 42%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 62%, Sigma Olomouc 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.06 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.