Mlada Boleslav 3-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Mlada Boleslav haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Mlada Boleslav's home record at Lokotrans Aréna: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lokotrans Aréna. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FK Jablonec haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, FK Jablonec have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Mlada Boleslav have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with FK Jablonec managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Mlada Boleslav and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 53% versus FK Jablonec 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 50% | FK Jablonec 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.90 xG and FK Jablonec 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.911 / defence 0.907 | FK Jablonec attack 1.070 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.158. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Mlada Boleslav's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Mlada Boleslav games / 30 FK Jablonec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 56% | Draw 22% | FK Jablonec 22%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | FK Jablonec 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 30% | FK Jablonec 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 56% | Draw 22% | FK Jablonec 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.90 / FK Jablonec 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.911 / def 0.907 | FK Jablonec attack 1.070 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.12
FK Jablonec xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 July 2023 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Mlada Boleslav 3 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 56% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec?
Record (4 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 3W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mlada Boleslav's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.07x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
56%
1.80
22%
4.49
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.03
1.12
FK Jablonec xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
15%
6.70
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
3%
30.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.12 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 32 games, going 9W 11D 12L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L. Mlada Boleslav haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.22 PPG from 32 outings (10W 9D 13L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. FK Jablonec haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.22 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 4W 9D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.88 points per game from 16 outings (4W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.41 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Pre-Season
FK Jablonec
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 9W 11D 12L in their last 32 games (1.19 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or FK Jablonec away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.31 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 3-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 56%, FK Jablonec 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Mlada Boleslav) and 69% (FK Jablonec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play FK Jablonec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 62% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 69% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat FK Jablonec 3-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.90 xG and FK Jablonec 1.12 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.91 / defence 0.91 against FK Jablonec attack 1.07 / defence 1.23, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 56% | Draw 22% | FK Jablonec 22%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 50%, FK Jablonec 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.19 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.