Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians 1905 make the trip to Lokotrans Arena to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's home record at Lokotrans Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 0.50 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mlada Boleslav lead 3W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 64% versus Bohemians 1905 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 64% | Bohemians 1905 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.30 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.021 / defence 1.385 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.833 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.267. Data: 49 Mlada Boleslav games / 49 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 33% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 40%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 1905 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 80% | Bohemians 1905 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 33% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.30 / Bohemians 1905 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.021 / def 1.385 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.833 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Bohemians 1905 xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Lokotrans Arena.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Mlada Boleslav 2 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 33% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
Record (9 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 3W | Draws 4 | Bohemians 1905 2W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.02) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.83x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
33%
3.02
26%
3.78
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.76
1.46
Bohemians 1905 xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
8%
13.00
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.46 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 53 games, going 15W 13D 25L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.11 PPG from 53 outings (15W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.11 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 6W 8D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.15 points per game from 26 outings (8W 6D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.96 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 15W 13D 25L in their last 53 games (1.09 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 14D 24L in their last 53 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.00 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mlada Boleslav
5
Draws
2
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 62%, Bohemians 1905 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Mlada Boleslav) and 38% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav have failed to score in 27% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 38% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 38% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.30 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.46 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.02 / defence 1.39 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.83 / defence 0.90, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 33% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 40%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 64%, Bohemians 1905 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.09 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.