Karviná 1-3 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slovácko (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Karviná face Slovácko.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Karviná host Slovácko at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Karviná — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's home record at Městský Stadión: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Slovácko — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Karviná, 2 for Slovácko and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Slovácko winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Karviná in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 50% versus Slovácko 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 59% | Slovácko 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 0.85 xG and Slovácko 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.596 / defence 1.499 | Slovácko attack 0.919 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.259. Karviná's attack strength of 0.596 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Karviná games / 52 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 17% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 57%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | Slovácko 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Slovácko (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 40% | Slovácko 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 17% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Karviná 0.85 / Slovácko 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.596 / def 1.499 | Slovácko attack 0.919 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Slovácko xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Slovácko kick off?
Karviná vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Slovácko?
Karviná 1 - 3 Slovácko.
Where is Karviná vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Slovácko part of?
Karviná vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 17% chance of winning, Slovácko a 57% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Karviná and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slovácko?
Record (3 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 1 | Slovácko 2W.
What form are Karviná and Slovácko in?
Karviná (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Slovácko (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Karviná's attack rating (0.60) and Slovácko's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-2 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
17%
5.99
27%
3.77
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.58
1.73
Slovácko xG
5.99
17%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
3%
33.90
24%
4.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 13.1 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Karviná and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Karviná and 1.73 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Slovácko?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná come into this having played 22 games, going 4W 4D 14L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.59 PPG from 22 outings (10W 5D 7L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Karviná's home form reads 2W 1D 7L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.40 points per game from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.36 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 4W 4D 14L in their last 22 games (0.73 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Slovácko away?
Slovácko's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 0.70 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Karviná or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Slovácko in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Karviná's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Karviná
1
Draws
5
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slovácko?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Slovácko have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Karviná 0-2 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Karviná 40% BTTS, Slovácko 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Karviná) and 30% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Slovácko in 40%; Karviná have failed to score in 50% of games; Slovácko in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Karviná's recent matches and 30% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Karviná's recent games and 30% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Slovácko tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovácko cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Karviná 1-3 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 0.85 xG and Slovácko 1.73 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Slovácko outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.60 / defence 1.50 against Slovácko attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 17% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 57%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 59%, Slovácko 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Karviná (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.