Karviná 1-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 53% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.

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Full Analysis

Městský Stadión plays host to Karviná versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga (matchday 29). Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Karviná's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Karviná's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Bohemians 1905 (all games): 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bohemians 1905 away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Karviná, 0.90 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have the stronger record — 3 wins to Karviná's 0, with 1 draw.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Karviná 0–1 Bohemians 1905 — a Bohemians 1905 win.

Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading

Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.

Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 54% versus Bohemians 1905 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 61% | Bohemians 1905 39%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Karviná surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Bohemians 1905 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.06 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.633 / defence 1.320 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.072 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.243. Karviná's attack rating of 0.633 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Karviná's defence rating of 1.320 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians 1905's projected output up. Data: built from Karviná's last 28 games and Bohemians 1905's last 58.

Result probabilities: Karviná 23% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 53%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 4.42 | Draw 4.18 | Bohemians 1905 1.87. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 53% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Bohemians 1905 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Karviná's last 10 home games and Bohemians 1905's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Karviná 40% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 80% (last 10 away games).

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