Hradec Králové 2-1 Zbrojovka Brno – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Zbrojovka Brno fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hradec Králové and Zbrojovka Brno meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hradec Králové have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Hradec Králové have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lokotrans Aréna.
Zbrojovka Brno (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Zbrojovka Brno have posted 3W 0D 1L from 4 away outings — 2.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.25 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Hradec Králové — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Zbrojovka Brno — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 70%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hradec Králové 50% and Zbrojovka Brno 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hradec Králové 60% | Zbrojovka Brno 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.67 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.951 / defence 0.725 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.076 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.348. Hradec Králové's defence rating of 0.725 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Hradec Králové games / 10 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 49% | Draw 30% | Zbrojovka Brno 21%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Zbrojovka Brno 4.76. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 40% | Zbrojovka Brno 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 49% | Draw 30% | Zbrojovka Brno 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Hradec Králové 1.67 / Zbrojovka Brno 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.951 / def 0.725 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.076 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Zbrojovka Brno xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Zbrojovka Brno kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Hradec Králové 2 - 1 Zbrojovka Brno.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
Hradec Králové vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 49% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hradec Králové and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Zbrojovka Brno?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Zbrojovka Brno in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (0.95) and Zbrojovka Brno's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zbrojovka Brno's attack (1.08x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 41/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
49%
2.03
30%
3.38
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.72
1.05
Zbrojovka Brno xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
4%
25.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.05 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hradec Králové come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 2D 4L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zbrojovka Brno sit at 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Hradec Králové against 1.40 for Zbrojovka Brno. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hradec Králové's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zbrojovka Brno have taken 2.25 points per game from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.40 PPG overall record — Zbrojovka Brno travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.60 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zbrojovka Brno in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Zbrojovka Brno away?
Zbrojovka Brno's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 2.00 PPG; Zbrojovka Brno away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Zbrojovka Brno been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Zbrojovka Brno in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Hradec Králové
0
Draws
0
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 2 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 2, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Zbrojovka Brno 1-2 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Zbrojovka Brno?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hradec Králové tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 25%, Zbrojovka Brno 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Hradec Králové) and 75% (Zbrojovka Brno).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Hradec Králové have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Zbrojovka Brno?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 75% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 75% of Zbrojovka Brno's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Zbrojovka Brno 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Zbrojovka Brno 2-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.67 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.05 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.95 / defence 0.72 against Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.08 / defence 1.16, drawn from 41/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 49% | Draw 30% | Zbrojovka Brno 21%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 60%, Zbrojovka Brno 90%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.40 PPG, Zbrojovka Brno 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.