FK Jablonec 1-2 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Strelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FK Jablonec have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Strelnice.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Slovan Liberec's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FK Jablonec, 1 for Slovan Liberec and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 41% versus Slovan Liberec 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 48% | Slovan Liberec 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.53 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.054 / defence 0.887 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.974 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.181. Data: 59 FK Jablonec games / 59 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 47% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 23%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Slovan Liberec 4.35. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 40% | Slovan Liberec 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 47% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG FK Jablonec 1.53 / Slovan Liberec 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.054 / def 0.887 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.974 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Slovan Liberec xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
FK Jablonec 1 - 2 Slovan Liberec.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec part of?
FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 47% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
Record (8 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 5 | Slovan Liberec 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 1.05x the league average against Slovan Liberec's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.97x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.43
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.55
1.02
Slovan Liberec xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
5%
19.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.02 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec come into this having played 61 games, going 33W 11D 17L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.44 PPG from 61 outings (23W 19D 19L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.44 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FK Jablonec's home form reads 17W 7D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 1.14 points per game from 29 outings (8W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.44 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Slovan Liberec in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 33W 11D 17L in their last 61 games (1.80 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 23W 19D 19L in their last 61 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Slovan Liberec away?
FK Jablonec's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 2.00 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.14 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 0-5 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
5
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 45%, Slovan Liberec 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FK Jablonec) and 52% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Slovan Liberec in 31%; Slovan Liberec in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 52% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 52% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slovan Liberec defy the odds to beat FK Jablonec 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat FK Jablonec 1-2 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.53 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.02 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.05 / defence 0.89 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 47% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 23%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Slovan Liberec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 48%, Slovan Liberec 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.80 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.