České Budějovice 1-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this season.
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for České Budějovice, 1.40 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: České Budějovice 2W, Bohemians 1905 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with České Budějovice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 53% versus Bohemians 1905 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 57% | Bohemians 1905 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.19 xG and Bohemians 1905 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.781 / defence 1.221 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.170 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.425. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 České Budějovice games / 49 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 21% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 56%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Bohemians 1905 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: České Budějovice 40% | Bohemians 1905 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 21% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG České Budějovice 1.19 / Bohemians 1905 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.781 / def 1.221 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.170 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Bohemians 1905 xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
České Budějovice 1 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 21% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905?
Record (3 meetings): České Budějovice 2W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1905 1W.
What form are České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.78x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.17x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 2.04.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
21%
4.84
24%
4.23
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
3.23
2.04
Bohemians 1905 xG
4.84
21%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
13%
7.66
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
3%
37.11
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for České Budějovice and 2.04 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 14W 12D 25L from 51 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 22L across 51 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.27 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 10W 5D 10L from 25 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 9W 5D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.49 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 14W 12D 25L in their last 51 games (1.06 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 18W 11D 22L in their last 51 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.40 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: České Budějovice won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
České Budějovice
2
Draws
2
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905?
From 9 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 5, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Bohemians 1905 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905?
České Budějovice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 52%, Bohemians 1905 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (České Budějovice) and 56% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of České Budějovice's games and 60% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of České Budějovice's matches and 56% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as České Budějovice defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1905 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.19 xG and Bohemians 1905 2.04 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.78 / defence 1.22 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.17 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 21% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 56%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a České Budějovice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 57%, Bohemians 1905 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.06 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.