České Budějovice 3-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.80 conceded. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
České Budějovice at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for České Budějovice, 1.30 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: České Budějovice 3W, Bohemians 1905 1W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with České Budějovice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 56% versus Bohemians 1905 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 67% | Bohemians 1905 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.37 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.056 / defence 1.518 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.007 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.260. Bohemians 1905's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 České Budějovice games / 34 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 27% | Draw 23% | Bohemians 1905 50%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Bohemians 1905 2.00. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 60% | Bohemians 1905 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 27% | Draw 23% | Bohemians 1905 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG České Budějovice 1.37 / Bohemians 1905 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.056 / def 1.518 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.007 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
České Budějovice 3 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 27% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905?
Record (4 meetings): České Budějovice 3W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1905 1W.
What form are České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 1.06x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.01x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
27%
3.68
23%
4.43
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
3.30
1.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
3.68
27%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
15%
6.86
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
4%
25.22
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.93 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 11W 5D 20L from 36 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 15W 6D 15L across 36 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.42 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 7W 2D 9L from 18 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 9W 2D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.44 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 11W 5D 20L in their last 36 games (1.06 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 6D 15L in their last 36 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.28 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: České Budějovice won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
České Budějovice
2
Draws
2
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905?
From 9 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 5, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Bohemians 1905 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905?
České Budějovice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 50%, Bohemians 1905 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for České Budějovice and 61% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 56% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of České Budějovice's matches and 61% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant České Budějovice run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Bohemians 1905 3-0 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.37 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.93 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. České Budějovice beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.06 / defence 1.52 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.01 / defence 0.79, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 27% | Draw 23% | Bohemians 1905 50%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual České Budějovice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 67%, Bohemians 1905 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.06 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.