Dukla Praha 0-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dukla Praha at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dukla Praha host Mlada Boleslav at Stadion Juliska in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dukla Praha stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Juliska, Dukla Praha have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Dukla Praha are significantly better at Stadion Juliska than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dukla Praha at 1.00 PPG versus Mlada Boleslav's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dukla Praha register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Mlada Boleslav in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Dukla Praha have won 2, Mlada Boleslav 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 3–2 with Dukla Praha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Dukla Praha trading profile (49 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (49 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 51% versus Mlada Boleslav 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 39% | Mlada Boleslav 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.40 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.897 / defence 1.054 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.023 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.231. Mlada Boleslav bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Dukla Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Dukla Praha games / 44 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 35% | Draw 33% | Mlada Boleslav 32%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Mlada Boleslav 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dukla Praha as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dukla Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 60% | Mlada Boleslav 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 35% | Draw 33% | Mlada Boleslav 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 59% | xG Dukla Praha 1.40 / Mlada Boleslav 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.897 / def 1.054 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.023 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Dukla Praha (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Mlada Boleslav xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Dukla Praha 0 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 35% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Dukla Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (3 meetings): Dukla Praha 2W | Draws 0 | Mlada Boleslav 1W.
What form are Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dukla Praha's attack rating (0.90) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dukla Praha Win
35%
2.84
33%
3.05
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.73
1.33
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.33 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dukla Praha's recent record stands at 9W 18D 22L from 49 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 24L across 49 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dukla Praha on 0.92 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dukla Praha have managed 6W 7D 9L from 22 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 6W 4D 12L across 22 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.39 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 9W 18D 22L in their last 49 games (0.92 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 13W 12D 24L in their last 49 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Dukla Praha's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.14 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
From 6 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 1-2 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
Dukla Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dukla Praha at 59%, Mlada Boleslav at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Dukla Praha) and 68% (Mlada Boleslav).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Dukla Praha's games and 73% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 68% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mlada Boleslav defy the odds to beat Dukla Praha 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Dukla Praha 0-1 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.40 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.33 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dukla Praha fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.02 / defence 1.32, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 35% | Draw 33% | Mlada Boleslav 32%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 39%, Mlada Boleslav 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (49 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (49 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.92 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.