Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bohemians 1905 (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bohemians 1905 face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Zlin travel to Dolicek to take on Bohemians 1905. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Dolicek this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Zlin — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bohemians 1905 are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Bohemians 1905: 7 wins from 10 previous clashes against 1 for Zlin, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bohemians 1905 and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Zlin trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus Zlin 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 42% | Zlin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.66 xG and Zlin 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.825 / defence 0.857 | Zlin attack 1.057 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.288. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.430 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Bohemians 1905 games / 36 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 48% | Draw 25% | Zlin 26%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Zlin 3.85. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Zlin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 48% | Draw 25% | Zlin 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.66 / Zlin 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.825 / def 0.857 | Zlin attack 1.057 / def 1.430 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Zlin xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Dolicek.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 48% chance of winning, Zlin a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
Record (10 meetings): Bohemians 1905 7W | Draws 2 | Zlin 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Zlin (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.82) and Zlin's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
48%
2.06
25%
3.95
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.83
1.17
Zlin xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
5%
20.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.17 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 12W 9D 17L from 38 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 23L across 38 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.18 PPG, Zlin on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 5W 5D 8L from 18 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 2W 4D 12L across 18 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.08 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Zlin have gone 8W 7D 23L in their last 38 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Zlin away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.11 PPG; Zlin away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Bohemians 1905 won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 7, Zlin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Zlin 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 39%, Zlin 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bohemians 1905) and 50% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 39% of games; Zlin in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 56% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 50% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Zlin tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Zlin in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.