Bohemians 1905 1-2 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Bohemians 1905 welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Ďolíček. Kick-off is set for Monday 22 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion Ďolíček — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ďolíček this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Bohemians 1905 have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Hradec Králové trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 55% versus Hradec Králové 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 58% | Hradec Králové 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.49 xG and Hradec Králové 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.067 / defence 1.148 | Hradec Králové attack 0.798 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.362. Data: 33 Bohemians 1905 games / 33 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 32%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Hradec Králové 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 40% | Hradec Králové 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Monday 22 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.49 / Hradec Králové 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.067 / def 1.148 | Hradec Králové attack 0.798 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Hradec Králové xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 22 August 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 2 Hradec Králové.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 43% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
43%
2.33
25%
3.94
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.74
1.25
Hradec Králové xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.25 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 12W 10D 16L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové's form line: 11W 14D 13L from 38 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.21 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 6D 9L from 18 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.21 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 11W 14D 13L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Hradec Králové away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.44 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2024, when Hradec Králové won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 56%, Hradec Králové 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Bohemians 1905) and 44% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 50% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 44% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1905 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Bohemians 1905 1-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.49 xG and Hradec Králové 1.25 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.07 / defence 1.15 against Hradec Králové attack 0.80 / defence 0.87, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 32%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 58%, Hradec Králové 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.21 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.