Bohemians 1905 0-2 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Ďolíček this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Baník Ostrava — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bohemians 1905, 1 for Baník Ostrava and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–4 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 64% and Baník Ostrava 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bohemians 1905 68% | Baník Ostrava 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.38 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.034 / defence 1.181 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.128 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.173. Data: 22 Bohemians 1905 games / 22 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 42%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Baník Ostrava 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 70% | Baník Ostrava 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.38 / Baník Ostrava 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.034 / def 1.181 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.128 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Baník Ostrava xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 2 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 34% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
Record (1 meetings): Bohemians 1905 0W | Draws 0 | Baník Ostrava 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (1.03) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
34%
2.97
24%
4.09
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.94
1.56
Baník Ostrava xG
2.97
34%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
7%
14.16
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.56 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 3D 13L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.91 PPG from 22 outings (12W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 5W 1D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Bohemians 1905 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 2.10 points per game from 10 outings (6W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 2.14 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Baník Ostrava in 73%.
Last 22 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 6W 3D 13L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 12W 6D 4L in their last 22 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.60 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 2.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bohemians 1905 at 70%, Baník Ostrava at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Bohemians 1905 and 70% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Bohemians 1905's games and 70% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 70% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Bohemians 1905 0-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.38 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.56 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.03 / defence 1.18 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.13 / defence 1.15, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 42%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 68%, Baník Ostrava 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.