Baník Ostrava 6-2 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Baník Ostrava and Zlin meet at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Baník Ostrava's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Zlin have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Zlin in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Baník Ostrava lead 3W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Baník Ostrava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Zlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 38% versus Zlin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baník Ostrava 25% | Zlin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.04 xG and Zlin 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.854 / defence 0.984 | Zlin attack 0.660 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.083. Data: 54 Baník Ostrava games / 24 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 42% | Draw 36% | Zlin 23%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.38 | Draw 2.78 | Zlin 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Zlin's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.74 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 30% | Zlin 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 42% | Draw 36% | Zlin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.04 / Zlin 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.854 / def 0.984 | Zlin attack 0.660 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Zlin xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Zlin kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Zlin kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Zlin?
Baník Ostrava 6 - 2 Zlin.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Zlin part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 42% chance of winning, Zlin a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Zlin?
Record (7 meetings): Baník Ostrava 3W | Draws 3 | Zlin 1W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Zlin in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Zlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.66x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
42%
2.41
36%
2.82
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
1.74
0.70
Zlin xG
2.41
42%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
8%
12.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 12.3 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.70 for Zlin, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 24 games, going 4W 7D 13L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 3W 2D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Zlin in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 7D 13L in their last 24 games (0.79 PPG), while Zlin have gone 8W 7D 9L in their last 24 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Zlin away?
Zlin's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.00 PPG; Zlin away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Zlin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Baník Ostrava have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won 5-1 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Baník Ostrava
3
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 6, Zlin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Zlin 0-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Zlin?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 36% (Baník Ostrava) and 27% (Zlin) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Baník Ostrava and 27% for Zlin.
On the defensive side: Zlin in 46%; Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 46% of games; Zlin in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 27% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 27% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Zlin tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Zlin in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Zlin 6-2 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.04 xG and Zlin 0.70 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 5.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zlin outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.85 / defence 0.98 against Zlin attack 0.66 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 42% | Draw 36% | Zlin 23%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 25%, Zlin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Baník Ostrava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.