Baník Ostrava 0-4 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baník Ostrava face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Slavia Praha travel to Městský stadion (Ostrava-Vítkovice) to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Městský stadion (Ostrava-Vítkovice), Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský stadion (Ostrava-Vítkovice). At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slavia Praha have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Slavia Praha — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Slavia Praha have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 9 of the last 9 encounters against Baník Ostrava's 0 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Slavia Praha winning.
It is worth noting that Slavia Praha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 9 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Slavia Praha in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 31% versus Slavia Praha 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 34% | Slavia Praha 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.31 xG and Slavia Praha 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.914 / defence 1.019 | Slavia Praha attack 1.106 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.316. Data: 31 Baník Ostrava games / 31 Slavia Praha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 34% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 41%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Slavia Praha 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Baník Ostrava 20% | Slavia Praha 80%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Městský stadion (Ostrava-Vítkovice) • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 34% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.31 / Slavia Praha 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.914 / def 1.019 | Slavia Praha attack 1.106 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Slavia Praha xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Městský stadion (Ostrava-Vítkovice).
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 4 Slavia Praha.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion (Ostrava-Vítkovice).
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 34% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha?
Record (9 meetings): Baník Ostrava 0W | Draws 0 | Slavia Praha 9W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baník Ostrava's attack rating (0.91) and Slavia Praha's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
34%
2.98
25%
3.97
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.80
1.48
Slavia Praha xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
8%
13.13
11%
9.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.48 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 35 games, going 10W 7D 18L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.37 PPG from 35 outings (25W 8D 2L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.31 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 6W 3D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 2.06 points per game from 17 outings (10W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.26 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slavia Praha in 60%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
Slavia Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 10W 7D 18L in their last 35 games (1.06 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 25W 8D 2L in their last 35 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.24 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Slavia Praha have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Baník Ostrava
0
Draws
10
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 24%, Slavia Praha 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Baník Ostrava) and 47% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 53% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 71% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 47% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Baník Ostrava 0-4 at Městský stadion (Ostrava-Vítkovice), Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.31 xG and Slavia Praha 1.48 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.48 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.91 / defence 1.02 against Slavia Praha attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 34% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 41%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 34%, Slavia Praha 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.