Baník Ostrava 1-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Baník Ostrava face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna plays host to Baník Ostrava versus Plzen in Czech Liga (matchday 12). Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Baník Ostrava (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Baník Ostrava have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Plzen's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Plzen's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Baník Ostrava against 2.10 for Plzen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Baník Ostrava, 2 for Plzen and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 May 2024, ended Baník Ostrava 1–1 Plzen — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Plzen — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 49% versus Plzen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 49% | Plzen 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Baník Ostrava surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Plzen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.28 xG and Plzen 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.053 / defence 0.791 | Plzen attack 1.025 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.228. Baník Ostrava have a tight defence (rating 0.791), which is pulling Plzen's projected output down. Data: built from Baník Ostrava's last 40 games and Plzen's last 40.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 41% | Draw 33% | Plzen 27%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.46 | Draw 3.05 | Plzen 3.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Baník Ostrava 50% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 12 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 41% | Draw 33% | Plzen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Baník Ostrava 1.28 / Plzen 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.053 / def 0.791 | Plzen attack 1.025 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Plzen xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Plzen FAQs
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Plzen kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 3 Plzen.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 12) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 41% chance of winning, Plzen a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 1.05x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.02x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Baník Ostrava's last 40 games and Plzen's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
41%
2.46
33%
3.05
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.28
1.00
Plzen xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.00 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 45 games, going 19W 10D 16L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Plzen sit at 2.02 PPG from 45 outings (27W 10D 8L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 10W 5D 6L across their last 21 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Plzen have taken 1.86 points per game from their last 21 away games (11W 6D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.09 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Plzen
Blended
Baník Ostrava (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are Baník Ostrava and Plzen in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 19W 10D 16L in their last 45 games (1.49 PPG), while Plzen have gone 27W 10D 8L in their last 45 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.67 PPG; Plzen away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Plzen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Baník Ostrava and Plzen, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Plzen have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won Baník Ostrava 0-4 Plzen on 1 Nov 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 1W 0D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Plzen have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Baník Ostrava 0-4 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 43%, Plzen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Baník Ostrava) and 62% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baník Ostrava and Plzen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 62% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baník Ostrava and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 62% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 81% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Baník Ostrava 1-3 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.28 xG and Plzen 1.00 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.05 / defence 0.79 against Plzen attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 41% | Draw 33% | Plzen 27%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 49%, Plzen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Plzen's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.