Baník Ostrava 1-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hradec Králové make the trip to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to face Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Baník Ostrava have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hradec Králové (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Hradec Králové are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Baník Ostrava 3W, Hradec Králové 1W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 3–2 with Baník Ostrava winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Baník Ostrava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Hradec Králové goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 51% versus Hradec Králové 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 51% | Hradec Králové 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.24 xG and Hradec Králové 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.053 / defence 0.931 | Hradec Králové attack 0.814 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.095. Data: 32 Baník Ostrava games / 33 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 25%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Hradec Králové 4.00. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Baník Ostrava dominate the H2H record, yet Hradec Králové are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Baník Ostrava 60% | Hradec Králové 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.24 / Hradec Králové 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.053 / def 0.931 | Hradec Králové attack 0.814 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Hradec Králové xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 46% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové?
Record (5 meetings): Baník Ostrava 3W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 1.05x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (0.81x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 32/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.40
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.06
0.83
Hradec Králové xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.83 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 15W 7D 15L from 37 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 12L across 37 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Baník Ostrava against 1.49 for Hradec Králové. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 7W 5D 6L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 4W 6D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.22 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 15W 7D 15L in their last 37 games (1.41 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 15W 10D 12L in their last 37 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Hradec Králové away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.44 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hradec Králové have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 44%, Hradec Králové 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Baník Ostrava) and 33% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 33%; Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 28% of games; Hradec Králové in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 44% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 33% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Hradec Králové 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.24 xG and Hradec Králové 0.83 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Hradec Králové attack 0.81 / defence 0.89, drawn from 32/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 25%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 51%, Hradec Králové 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.41 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.