Artis vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Artis vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Artis host Teplice at Town Stadium Karvina in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Artis stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Artis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Artis at Town Stadium Karvina this season: 0W 1D 5L from 6 home games — 0.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.17 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Town Stadium Karvina this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Teplice have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Teplice are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Artis in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Teplice in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Artis 58% versus Teplice 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Artis 75% | Teplice 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Artis 0.79 xG and Teplice 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Artis attack 0.650 / defence 1.475 | Teplice attack 1.074 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.183. Artis's attack strength of 0.650 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Artis games / 41 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Artis 14% | Draw 23% | Teplice 62%. Fair-value odds: Artis 7.14 | Draw 4.35 | Teplice 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Artis 50% | Teplice 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Artis vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Artis 14% | Draw 23% | Teplice 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 47% | xG Artis 0.79 / Teplice 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Artis attack 0.650 / def 1.475 | Teplice attack 1.074 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Teplice (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Artis xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Teplice xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Artis vs Teplice kick off?
Artis vs Teplice is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Town Stadium Karvina.
Where is Artis vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Artis vs Teplice part of?
Artis vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Artis vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Artis a 14% chance of winning, Teplice a 62% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Artis vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Artis and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Artis vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Artis and Teplice in?
Artis (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Teplice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Artis's attack at 0.65x the league average against Teplice's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Artis's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
14%
6.91
23%
4.30
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Artis xG
Total xG
2.66
1.87
Teplice xG
6.91
14%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
15%
6.51
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
2%
44.94
28%
3.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Artis vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Artis and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Artis and 1.87 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Artis vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Artis come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 2D 8L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Artis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.67 PPG from 12 outings (6W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Artis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Artis's home form reads 0W 1D 5L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.17 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 2.00 points per game from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Artis are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.67 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Artis
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Artis and Teplice in coming into this match?
Artis have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 games (0.67 PPG), while Teplice have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Artis at home or Teplice away?
Teplice's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Artis at home: 0.17 PPG; Teplice away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Artis or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Artis have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Teplice in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Artis 50%, Teplice 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Artis) and 33% (Teplice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 50%; Artis have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Artis home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Artis play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Artis's recent matches and 33% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Artis vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Artis's matches and 33% of Teplice's.
Do Artis and Teplice tend to score early?
Artis have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Teplice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.