Wuhan Three Towns 1-3 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Henan Jianye travel to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium to take on Wuhan Three Towns. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Wuhan Three Towns are significantly better at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Wuhan Three Towns have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 0 for Henan Jianye and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2022, ended 3–0 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 91% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 54% versus Henan Jianye 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wuhan Three Towns 75% | Henan Jianye 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 2.23 xG and Henan Jianye 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.712 / defence 1.017 | Henan Jianye attack 0.912 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.356. Wuhan Three Towns carry an above-average attack strength of 1.712 — their λ of 2.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 24 Wuhan Three Towns games / 38 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 59% | Draw 21% | Henan Jianye 20%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Henan Jianye 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Three Towns 60% | Henan Jianye 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 59% | Draw 21% | Henan Jianye 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 2.23 / Henan Jianye 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.712 / def 1.017 | Henan Jianye attack 0.912 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Henan Jianye xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Wuhan Three Towns 1 - 3 Henan Jianye.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 59% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye?
Record (1 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 1W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 0W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (1.71x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
59%
1.70
21%
4.79
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
3.49
1.26
Henan Jianye xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
11%
9.33
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
2%
46.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.26 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wuhan Three Towns come into this having played 24 games, going 19W 2D 3L for 2.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (12W 4D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wuhan Three Towns's home form reads 9W 0D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.36 points per game from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.88 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.67 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Henan Jianye in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 19W 2D 3L in their last 24 games (2.46 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 12W 4D 8L in their last 24 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Henan Jianye away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 2.45 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2022, when Wuhan Three Towns won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Wuhan Three Towns
2
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye?
From 9 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 5, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 82% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 54%, Henan Jianye 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 91% for Wuhan Three Towns and 36% for Henan Jianye. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 82% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 54%; Henan Jianye in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 27% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 91% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 36% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Wuhan Three Towns.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-3 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 2.23 xG and Henan Jianye 1.26 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.71 / defence 1.02 against Henan Jianye attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 24/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 59% | Draw 21% | Henan Jianye 20%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Henan Jianye win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 75%, Henan Jianye 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.67. Form was overturned, with Henan Jianye winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.