Tianjin Teda 0-0 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua meet at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 3W 7D 0L across 10 games at TEDA Football Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Tianjin Teda 2W, Shanghai Shenhua 0W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 54% versus Shanghai Shenhua 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 43% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 0.78 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.838 / defence 0.950 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.118 / defence 0.642. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.428. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.642 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Tianjin Teda games / 40 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 18% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 54%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Shanghai Shenhua 1.85. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Tianjin Teda 70% | Shanghai Shenhua 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 18% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Tianjin Teda 0.78 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.838 / def 0.950 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.118 / def 0.642 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Shanghai Shenhua xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 0 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 18% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 54% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (4 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 2 | Shanghai Shenhua 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.84) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (0.64), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (1.12x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
18%
5.47
28%
3.62
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.29
1.52
Shanghai Shenhua xG
5.47
18%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
4%
24.90
25%
4.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 15.3 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.52 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 25W 22D 16L from 63 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have gone 28W 18D 17L across 63 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.62 for Shanghai Shenhua. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 12W 14D 5L from 31 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record stands at 12W 10D 9L across 31 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.19 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 25W 22D 16L in their last 63 games (1.54 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 28W 18D 17L in their last 63 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.61 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 3-0 on 25 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
4
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 0-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 55%, Shanghai Shenhua 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Tianjin Teda) and 45% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Shanghai Shenhua in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Tianjin Teda's games and 58% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 45% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tianjin Teda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 0.78 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.52 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.84 / defence 0.95 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.12 / defence 0.64, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 18% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 54%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 43%, Shanghai Shenhua 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.54 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.