Tianjin Teda 1-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Hangzhou Greentown travel to Wuyuan River Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wuyuan River Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 4W 6D 0L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 7D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tianjin Teda at 1.50 PPG versus Hangzhou Greentown's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 44% versus Hangzhou Greentown 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Tianjin Teda 35% | Hangzhou Greentown 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.18 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.994 / defence 0.884 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.990 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.297. Data: 35 Tianjin Teda games / 21 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 28% | Hangzhou Greentown 35%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Tianjin Teda 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 28% | Hangzhou Greentown 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.18 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.994 / def 0.884 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.990 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Hangzhou Greentown xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 37% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.99) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
37%
2.70
28%
3.54
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.32
1.14
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.14 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 10W 5D 8L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown's form line: 10W 10D 3L from 23 games, 1.74 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.52 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 7D 0L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.43 scored and 0.70 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 10W 5D 8L in their last 23 games (1.52 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 10W 10D 3L in their last 23 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Hangzhou Greentown's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.40 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 8 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 50%, Hangzhou Greentown 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Tianjin Teda) and 30% (Hangzhou Greentown).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Tianjin Teda's games and 70% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 30% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hangzhou Greentown defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Tianjin Teda 1-2 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.18 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.14 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.99 / defence 0.88 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.99 / defence 0.87, drawn from 35/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 28% | Hangzhou Greentown 35%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 35%, Hangzhou Greentown 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.52 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.