Tianjin Teda 1-1 Chongqing Lifan – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Tianjin Teda face Chongqing Lifan.

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Full Analysis

Suzhou City Sports Centre plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Chongqing Lifan in Super League (Relegation Round - 1). Kick-off: Sunday 12 December 2021 at 11:30 UK time.

Current Form

Tianjin Teda's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Tianjin Teda's home record over their last 7 home games: 2W 0D 5L (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Chongqing Lifan (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Chongqing Lifan have gone 0W 1D 6L in their last 7 away fixtures (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.14 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Tianjin Teda's last 7 home games and Chongqing Lifan's last 7 away games) — both teams have scored in 86% of Tianjin Teda's games and 71% of Chongqing Lifan's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Trading

Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (last 14 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.

Chongqing Lifan half-time and goal-timing data (last 14 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 57% versus Chongqing Lifan 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 57% | Chongqing Lifan 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.44 xG and Chongqing Lifan 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.969 / defence 1.444 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.749 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.286. Chongqing Lifan's defence rating of 1.285 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tianjin Teda's projected output up. Chongqing Lifan's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.39. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 1.444 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chongqing Lifan's projected output up. Data: built from Tianjin Teda's last 14 games and Chongqing Lifan's last 14.

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 29% | Chongqing Lifan 34%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.73 | Draw 3.42 | Chongqing Lifan 2.93. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Tianjin Teda's last 7 home games and Chongqing Lifan's last 7 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tianjin Teda 86% (last 7 home games) | Chongqing Lifan 71% (last 7 away games).

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