Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Shijiazhuang Y. J. welcome SHANGHAI SIPG to Cangzhou Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 26 April 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 2W 5D 3L at Cangzhou Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cangzhou Stadium this season.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Super League this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.80 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Shijiazhuang Y. J., 1 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2022, ended 0–2 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48% | SHANGHAI SIPG 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.93 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.896 / defence 0.995 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.120 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.303. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 36 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 21% | Draw 33% | SHANGHAI SIPG 46%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4.76 | Draw 3.03 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.17. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 21% | Draw 33% | SHANGHAI SIPG 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.93 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.896 / def 0.995 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.120 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.45
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 10:30 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 21% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 46% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (2 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
21%
4.70
33%
3.07
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.39
1.45
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
4.70
21%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
5%
20.06
18%
5.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.4 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.45 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 17W 17D 22L from 56 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG, meanwhile, have gone 33W 11D 12L across 56 games — 1.96 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 8W 11D 9L from 28 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record stands at 13W 8D 7L across 28 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.73 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 17W 17D 22L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 33W 11D 12L in their last 56 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.25 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jul 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1
Draws
5
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 39%, SHANGHAI SIPG 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 54% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 36%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 54% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 54% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.93 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.45 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.90 / defence 0.99 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.12 / defence 0.73, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 21% | Draw 33% | SHANGHAI SIPG 46%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%, SHANGHAI SIPG 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.