Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beijing Guoan (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shenzhen Ruby FC face Beijing Guoan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023, 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 0W 0D 10L from 10 Super League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 games at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.00 — Shenzhen Ruby FC are significantly better at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beijing Guoan away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beijing Guoan are 2.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shenzhen Ruby FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Beijing Guoan in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 3 for Beijing Guoan and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Jul 2023, ended 0–5 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 47% versus Beijing Guoan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 64% | Beijing Guoan 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.90 xG and Beijing Guoan 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.678 / defence 1.440 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.124 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.243. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 63 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 16% | Draw 21% | Beijing Guoan 63%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 6.25 | Draw 4.76 | Beijing Guoan 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | Beijing Guoan 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 16% | Draw 21% | Beijing Guoan 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.90 / Beijing Guoan 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.678 / def 1.440 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.124 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Beijing Guoan xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 3 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 16% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 63% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan?
Record (5 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 3W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (0.68) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
16%
6.35
21%
4.66
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.91
2.01
Beijing Guoan xG
6.35
16%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
13%
7.47
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
2%
47.46
25%
3.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 2.01 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 62 games, going 12W 6D 44L for 0.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Beijing Guoan sit at 1.71 PPG from 62 outings (30W 16D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home form reads 8W 2D 21L across 31 games on their own ground, a 0.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Beijing Guoan have taken 1.61 points per game from 31 outings (14W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 2.37 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.71 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 44L in their last 62 games (0.68 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 30W 16D 16L in their last 62 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 0.84 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beijing Guoan have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Jul 2023, when Beijing Guoan won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan?
From 6 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 4 November 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 45%, Beijing Guoan 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 64% for Beijing Guoan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 64% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 64% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.90 xG and Beijing Guoan 2.01 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Beijing Guoan outscored their 2.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.44 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.12 / defence 0.88, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 16% | Draw 21% | Beijing Guoan 63%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%, Beijing Guoan 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.