SHANGHAI SIPG 3-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as SHANGHAI SIPG face Qingdao Jonoon.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Pudong Football Stadium in Super League (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 9 May 2025 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SHANGHAI SIPG stand at 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 4.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Qingdao Jonoon have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Qingdao Jonoon away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
SHANGHAI SIPG are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
SHANGHAI SIPG hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Qingdao Jonoon and 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Jul 2024, ended SHANGHAI SIPG 5–0 Qingdao Jonoon — a SHANGHAI SIPG win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 4.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 60% versus Qingdao Jonoon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 67% | Qingdao Jonoon 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.066 / defence 0.975 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.736 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.426. Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating of 0.736 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Data: built from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 40 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 41.
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 56% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 19%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.77 | Draw 4.03 | Qingdao Jonoon 5.34. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 home games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 away games) averaging 4.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SHANGHAI SIPG 60% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Jonoon 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, matchday 12 | Venue: Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 56% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.066 / def 0.975 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.736 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.426 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Qingdao Jonoon xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon FAQs
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 9 May 2025 at Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
SHANGHAI SIPG 3 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Super League fixture (matchday 12) (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 56% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.07x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 40 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
56%
1.77
25%
4.03
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.92
1.02
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
15%
6.66
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
3%
35.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.02 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 60 games, going 44W 9D 7L for 2.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Qingdao Jonoon sit at 0.95 PPG from 60 outings (15W 12D 33L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 22W 5D 3L across their last 30 home games, a 2.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Jonoon have taken 0.40 points per game from their last 30 away games (2W 6D 22L). That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.03 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG (Home) vs Qingdao Jonoon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon Form FAQs
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 44W 9D 7L in their last 60 games (2.35 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 15W 12D 33L in their last 60 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.37 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.40 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Qingdao Jonoon been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Qingdao Jonoon in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from May 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Aug 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won Qingdao Jonoon 0-5 SHANGHAI SIPG.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 77%, Qingdao Jonoon 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 37% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon in 63%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 37% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 60% of Qingdao Jonoon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.02 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.74 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 56% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 19%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 67%, Qingdao Jonoon 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.