Shandong Luneng 3-2 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Thursday 16 May 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shandong Luneng's home record at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.81 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.307 / defence 0.999 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.885 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.423. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Shandong Luneng games / 11 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 50% | Draw 24% | Sichuan Jiuniu 26%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Sichuan Jiuniu 3.85. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 50% | Draw 24% | Sichuan Jiuniu 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.81 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.307 / def 0.999 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.885 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:35 on Thursday 16 May 2024 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Shandong Luneng 3 - 2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 50% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Shandong Luneng home split: 2.50 PPG from 10 | GF 2.90 / GA 0.70 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (1.31) and Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.89x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.17
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.07
1.26
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
4%
23.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.26 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Pre-Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 4-0 on 11 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
5
Shandong Luneng
0
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 5 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 5, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-2 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.81 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.26 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.31 / defence 1.00 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.89 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 50% | Draw 24% | Sichuan Jiuniu 26%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.