Shandong Luneng 3-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Dalian Aerbin at Wuyuan River Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 June 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng at Wuyuan River Stadium this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dalian Aerbin — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shandong Luneng register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dalian Aerbin in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 54% versus Dalian Aerbin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 50% | Dalian Aerbin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.60 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.263 / defence 0.731 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.107 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.132. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 1.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shandong Luneng's defence rating of 0.731 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 18 Shandong Luneng games / 18 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 52% | Draw 27% | Dalian Aerbin 20%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Dalian Aerbin 5.00. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shandong Luneng 60% | Dalian Aerbin 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Jun 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 52% | Draw 27% | Dalian Aerbin 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.60 / Dalian Aerbin 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.263 / def 0.731 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.107 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Dalian Aerbin xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 13:00 on Tuesday 21 June 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin?
Shandong Luneng 3 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 52% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (1.26) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.66
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.51
0.92
Dalian Aerbin xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
4%
24.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.92 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 22 games, going 15W 6D 1L for 2.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 0.91 PPG from 22 outings (6W 2D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.41 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 9W 2D 0L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 0.91 points per game from 11 outings (3W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 0.95 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 15W 6D 1L in their last 22 games (2.32 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 6W 2D 14L in their last 22 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.64 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jun 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Shandong Luneng
1
Draws
0
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin?
From 4 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 23 September 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 0-0 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 54%, Dalian Aerbin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Shandong Luneng) and 54% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 54% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Shandong Luneng's recent games and 54% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Dalian Aerbin 3-0 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.60 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.92 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Aerbin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.26 / defence 0.73 against Dalian Aerbin attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 52% | Draw 27% | Dalian Aerbin 20%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 50%, Dalian Aerbin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.