Shandong Luneng 3-1 Chongqing Lifan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shandong Luneng welcome Chongqing Lifan to Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium in Super League (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 24 July 2021 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 7 games, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 3D 0L — a 2.14 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 0.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.43 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 7 games (71%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Shandong Luneng's home record over their last 3 home games: 2W 1D 0L (2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 3 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 7 matches, Chongqing Lifan stand at 1W 1D 5L — 0.57 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.29 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
When travelling, Chongqing Lifan have posted 0W 0D 3L from their last 3 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.57 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.14 vs 0.57. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Shandong Luneng, 0 for Chongqing Lifan and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2021, ended Shandong Luneng 2–0 Chongqing Lifan — a Shandong Luneng win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shandong Luneng trading profile (last 7 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time.
Chongqing Lifan trading profile (last 7 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 29% versus Chongqing Lifan 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 14% | Chongqing Lifan 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.19 xG and Chongqing Lifan 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 0.903 / defence 0.842 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.720 / defence 1.512. League average goals — home 0.869 / away 1.186. Chongqing Lifan's defence rating of 1.512 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shandong Luneng's projected output up. Chongqing Lifan's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 7 games and Chongqing Lifan's last 7.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 43% | Draw 38% | Chongqing Lifan 19%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.31 | Draw 2.62 | Chongqing Lifan 5.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 70% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shandong Luneng's last 3 home games and Chongqing Lifan's last 3 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shandong Luneng 0% (last 3 home games) | Chongqing Lifan 67% (last 3 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan | Competition: Super League, matchday 8 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 July 2021 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 43% | Draw 38% | Chongqing Lifan 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Shandong Luneng 1.19 / Chongqing Lifan 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 0.903 / def 0.842 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.720 / def 1.512 | league avg home 0.869 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Chongqing Lifan xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan FAQs
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan?
Shandong Luneng 3 - 1 Chongqing Lifan.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan is a Super League fixture (matchday 8) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 43% chance of winning, Chongqing Lifan a 19% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Chongqing Lifan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (0.90) and Chongqing Lifan's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chongqing Lifan's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shandong Luneng's last 7 games and Chongqing Lifan's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
43%
2.31
38%
2.62
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
1.91
0.72
Chongqing Lifan xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
6%
17.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.7 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Chongqing Lifan expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.72 for Chongqing Lifan, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 3D 0L for 2.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Chongqing Lifan sit at 0.57 PPG from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.57 PPG clear of Chongqing Lifan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across their last 3 home games, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Chongqing Lifan have taken 0.00 points per game from their last 3 away games (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chongqing Lifan's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Lifan are on 1.00 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Early Season
Chongqing Lifan
Early Season
Shandong Luneng (Home) vs Chongqing Lifan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shandong Luneng
Early Season
Chongqing Lifan
Early Season
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan Form FAQs
What form are Shandong Luneng and Chongqing Lifan in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 3D 0L in their last 7 games (2.14 PPG), while Chongqing Lifan have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Chongqing Lifan away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.33 PPG; Chongqing Lifan away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Chongqing Lifan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their recent games, Chongqing Lifan in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 24 July 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Shandong Luneng
0
Draws
0
Chongqing Lifan
Recent Meetings
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Chongqing Lifan?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have won 2, Chongqing Lifan have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Chongqing Lifan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 July 2021: Shandong Luneng 3-1 Chongqing Lifan.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Chongqing Lifan?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shandong Luneng see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Chongqing Lifan see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Shandong Luneng 0% BTTS, Chongqing Lifan 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Shandong Luneng and 67% for Chongqing Lifan.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Shandong Luneng have failed to score in 33% of games; Chongqing Lifan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Chongqing Lifan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shandong Luneng and Chongqing Lifan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 67% of Chongqing Lifan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shandong Luneng and Chongqing Lifan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Shandong Luneng's recent games and 67% of Chongqing Lifan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chongqing Lifan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Chongqing Lifan 3-1 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.19 xG and Chongqing Lifan 0.72 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 0.90 / defence 0.84 against Chongqing Lifan attack 0.72 / defence 1.51, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 43% | Draw 38% | Chongqing Lifan 19%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 14%, Chongqing Lifan 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and conceded here.
Chongqing Lifan's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.