Shandong Luneng 2-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beijing Guoan make the trip to Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Championship Round - 2. The match kicks off on Thursday 16 December 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 0L across 7 games at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium this term (2.71 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
Beijing Guoan (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 4L across 7 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Shandong Luneng's 2.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Beijing Guoan's 1.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 47% versus Beijing Guoan 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 53% | Beijing Guoan 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.52 xG and Beijing Guoan 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.129 / defence 1.033 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.742 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Shandong Luneng games / 14 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 48% | Draw 30% | Beijing Guoan 22%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Beijing Guoan 4.55. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shandong Luneng 43% | Beijing Guoan 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Dec 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 48% | Draw 30% | Beijing Guoan 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.52 / Beijing Guoan 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.129 / def 1.033 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.742 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Beijing Guoan xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 10:00 on Thursday 16 December 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Shandong Luneng 2 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 48% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.13x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (0.74x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
48%
2.10
30%
3.32
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.50
0.98
Beijing Guoan xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
5%
20.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.98 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shandong Luneng's recent record stands at 11W 3D 1L from 15 games, a 2.40 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 4L across 15 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Beijing Guoan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shandong Luneng have managed 6W 1D 0L from 7 games — 2.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beijing Guoan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.33 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games; Beijing Guoan in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 11W 3D 1L in their last 15 games (2.40 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 8W 3D 4L in their last 15 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.71 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 6-0 on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
3
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-0 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 43%, Beijing Guoan 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Shandong Luneng) and 43% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Beijing Guoan in 43%; Beijing Guoan in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 43% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Shandong Luneng's recent games and 43% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Beijing Guoan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Beijing Guoan 2-1 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Championship Round - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.52 xG and Beijing Guoan 0.98 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.13 / defence 1.03 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 48% | Draw 30% | Beijing Guoan 22%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 53%, Beijing Guoan 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.80. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.