Qingdao Youth Island 3-3 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 48%, yet in-form SHANGHAI SIPG provide a compelling counter-argument — this Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees SHANGHAI SIPG travel to Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center to take on Qingdao Youth Island. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Youth Island — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Qingdao Youth Island's home record at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SHANGHAI SIPG stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record: 8W 0D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SHANGHAI SIPG — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 63% and SHANGHAI SIPG 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Qingdao Youth Island 60% | SHANGHAI SIPG 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.71 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.068 / defence 0.940 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.101 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.193. Data: 32 Qingdao Youth Island games / 32 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 48% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 27%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.70. Qingdao Youth Island hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SHANGHAI SIPG (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 80% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 48% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.71 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.068 / def 0.940 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.101 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.24
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Qingdao Youth Island 3 - 3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 48% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (2 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 0W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Youth Island's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.92
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.94
1.24
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
5%
20.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.24 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Youth Island come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 8D 14L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 2.60 PPG from 30 outings (25W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.53 PPG clear of Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Qingdao Youth Island's home form reads 3W 7D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 2.33 points per game from 15 outings (11W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 3.20 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 25W 3D 2L in their last 30 (2.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.07 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Qingdao Youth Island or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Youth Island have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Mar 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Qingdao Youth Island
2
Draws
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 2-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 67%, SHANGHAI SIPG 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 67% (SHANGHAI SIPG). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 60%; Qingdao Youth Island have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent matches and 40% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Qingdao Youth Island's matches and 67% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 3, as Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG drew 3-3 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.71 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.24 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 48% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 27%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 60%, SHANGHAI SIPG 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.