Qingdao Youth Island 2-0 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center plays host to Qingdao Youth Island versus Dalian Zhixing in Super League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 20 April 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Qingdao Youth Island (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 2.10 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.028 / defence 1.296 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.703 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.725 / away 1.500. Data: 36 Qingdao Youth Island games / 7 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 53% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 23%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Dalian Zhixing 4.35. Qingdao Youth Island hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 53% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 2.10 / Dalian Zhixing 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.028 / def 1.296 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.703 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.725 / away 1.500 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Dalian Zhixing xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing?
Qingdao Youth Island 2 - 0 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 53% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Qingdao Youth Island home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating (1.03) and Dalian Zhixing's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dalian Zhixing's attack (0.70x) against Qingdao Youth Island's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 36/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.11
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
3.46
1.37
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
12%
8.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
3%
35.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.37 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Qingdao Youth Island go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Qingdao Youth Island
0
Draws
0
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing?
From 3 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 3, Dalian Zhixing have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 2-3 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Qingdao Youth Island cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Dalian Zhixing 2-0 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 2.10 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.37 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.03 / defence 1.30 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.70 / defence 1.18, drawn from 36/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 53% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 23%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.