Qingdao Jonoon 2-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Qingdao Youth Football Stadium plays host to Qingdao Jonoon versus Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023 at 08:30 UTC.
Current Form
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Meizhou Kejia's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.29 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.978 / defence 1.238 | Meizhou Kejia attack 1.169 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.245. Data: 6 Qingdao Jonoon games / 40 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 24% | Draw 29% | Meizhou Kejia 46%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Meizhou Kejia 2.17. Meizhou Kejia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 24% | Draw 29% | Meizhou Kejia 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.29 / Meizhou Kejia 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.978 / def 1.238 | Meizhou Kejia attack 1.169 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Meizhou Kejia xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Qingdao Jonoon 2 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 24% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Meizhou Kejia away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 0.98x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (1.17x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
24%
4.11
29%
3.40
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.09
1.80
Meizhou Kejia xG
4.11
24%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
17%
6.06
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
4%
24.90
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.80 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
Meizhou Kejia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
2
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 1-0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Meizhou Kejia 2-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.29 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.80 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.98 / defence 1.24 against Meizhou Kejia attack 1.17 / defence 1.08, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 24% | Draw 29% | Meizhou Kejia 46%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Qingdao Jonoon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.