Qingdao Huanghai 0-5 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Huanghai vs Shandong Luneng encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Shandong Luneng travel to Huadu Stadium to take on Qingdao Huanghai in Super League (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Monday 2 August 2021 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Qingdao Huanghai stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Qingdao Huanghai at home: 2W 0D 3L from their last 5 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Qingdao Huanghai are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Shandong Luneng have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from their last 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Shandong Luneng's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Qingdao Huanghai's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, Shandong Luneng 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 May 2021, ended Qingdao Huanghai 0–2 Shandong Luneng — a Shandong Luneng win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Qingdao Huanghai in-play and half-time data (last 10 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.

Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (last 10 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 30% of Qingdao Huanghai's games and 40% of Shandong Luneng's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Qingdao Huanghai 40% | Shandong Luneng 30%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Huanghai 0.81 xG and Shandong Luneng 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.741 / defence 1.764 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.008 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.166. Qingdao Huanghai's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Qingdao Huanghai's defence rating of 1.764 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shandong Luneng's projected output up. Data: built from Qingdao Huanghai's last 10 games and Shandong Luneng's last 10.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 11% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 64%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Huanghai 9.30 | Draw 3.94 | Shandong Luneng 1.57. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (64%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Huanghai's last 5 home games and Shandong Luneng's last 5 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Qingdao Huanghai 40% (last 5 home games) | Shandong Luneng 60% (last 5 away games).

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