Nantong Zhiyun 1-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Nantong Zhiyun at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Nantong Zhiyun host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Nantong Zhiyun — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 1W 3D 6L at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Nantong Zhiyun) versus 0.40 (Shijiazhuang Y. J.). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nantong Zhiyun, 1 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 1–2 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Nantong Zhiyun in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantong Zhiyun 57% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantong Zhiyun 33% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 1.69 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.765 / defence 1.149 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.891 / defence 1.431. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.528. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.431 — this is suppressing Nantong Zhiyun's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Nantong Zhiyun games / 42 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 40% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 35%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Nantong Zhiyun at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nantong Zhiyun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nantong Zhiyun 50% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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