Nantong Zhiyun 3-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Nantong Zhiyun in Super League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Nantong Zhiyun (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantong Zhiyun's home record at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Nantong Zhiyun, 2 for Hangzhou Greentown and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 2–5 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nantong Zhiyun — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nantong Zhiyun 61% and Hangzhou Greentown 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantong Zhiyun 43% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 1.34 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.630 / defence 1.153 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.904 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.778 / away 1.334. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.630 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Nantong Zhiyun games / 56 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 36% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 38%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Nantong Zhiyun 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 36% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 1.34 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.630 / def 1.153 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.904 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.778 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Hangzhou Greentown xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Nantong Zhiyun 3 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 36% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (3 meetings): Nantong Zhiyun 0W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 2W.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nantong Zhiyun's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (0.90x) against Nantong Zhiyun's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
36%
2.78
26%
3.90
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.73
1.39
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.15
10%
9.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.39 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantong Zhiyun come into this having played 56 games, going 8W 16D 32L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.57 PPG from 56 outings (26W 10D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Nantong Zhiyun's home form reads 3W 7D 17L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 1.22 points per game from 27 outings (9W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.84 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantong Zhiyun have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 8W 16D 32L in their last 56 games (0.71 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 26W 10D 20L in their last 56 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Hangzhou Greentown's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 0.59 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won 5-2 on 17 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nantong Zhiyun
1
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 3-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantong Zhiyun 48%, Hangzhou Greentown 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Nantong Zhiyun) and 78% (Hangzhou Greentown). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nantong Zhiyun have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantong Zhiyun play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Nantong Zhiyun's games and 67% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nantong Zhiyun vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 37% of Nantong Zhiyun's matches and 78% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Nantong Zhiyun have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nantong Zhiyun defy the odds to beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantong Zhiyun beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 1.34 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.39 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Nantong Zhiyun beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.63 / defence 1.15 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.90 / defence 1.20, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 36% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 38%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Nantong Zhiyun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 43%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Nantong Zhiyun winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.